football predictions - 13 points to study

Betting on soccer is an art!

Betting on soccer is easy! Predicting a match correctly is another story... Footballfeeling gives you a few parameters to take into account in order to optimize your chances of succeeding with your soccer bets.

When you're about to place a bet or make a prediction on a soccer match, there are certain elements that guide your analysis: the shape of the teams, their names (we're always more likely to give credit to a big name like Real Madrid or Bayern), position in the standings, star players... In short, on paper, some things seem obvious. However, there are parameters inherent in every soccer match that cannot be predicted, and luck is one of them. A post or a crossbar that saves a team, a refereeing error that turns a match on its head (valid goal disallowed, hands in the area not whistled, etc.), one or more red cards that weaken one of the 2 teams.

We've outlined the main points to help you analyze a soccer match and optimize your chances of success with the different types of sports betting.

Ranking of the 2 teams

In national leagues(Ligue 1, Serie A, Premier League), the ranking between 2 teams gives a very clear indication of the difference in level at any given moment; the leader of a league will logically be superior to the bottom-placed team; there's a good chance that the match will be unbalanced and that the higher-ranked team will win. In the same way, a match between 2 teams of a similar level in the standings will certainly be balanced and will have a good chance of ending in a draw.

In the European Cup, it's a different story. It's difficult to compare the rankings of different leagues. The level of the Scottish championship, for example, does not reflect that of England, which is logically higher. So, to refine your Champions League predictionsAnd remember that the best teams often come from the same countries. England and Spain are above the rest at the moment, while Italy, France and Portugal manage to get a team through to the quarter-finals, but rarely further than that.

In the Europa League, on the other hand, there are often surprises in store, as this less lucrative competition is not necessarily taken seriously by the "big boys". The trend in the late 2010s saw the emergence of clubs from Eastern Europe. Victory for CSKA Moscow (2005), Zenit st Petersburg (2008) or Shakhtar (2009). Over the last 17 years (2004-2021), the Spaniards have won the trophy 11 times! Valencia (2004), Sevilla (2006-2007-2014-2015-2016-2020), Atletico Madrid (2010-2012-2018) and Villareal (2021) have added to their trophy cabinet, while only one French club has reached the final twice in the 21st century: OM (2004-2018.) Look no further for a lack of competitiveness in terms of UEFA points.

The shape of the moment

The form of the moment is the result of the last 3-5 matches, statistics which you will often find at bookmakers and which you will also find on footballfeeling in our match-by-match predictions. The form of the moment allows you to assess a team's tendency, whether it's on the wane or in top form, for example. A team that has just racked up 3-4 convincing results will be in better form than one that has just lost its last 5 games. Most teams have series in the league, so it's up to you to anticipate them and sense when they're going to end. Since prognostication is a short-term matter, this analysis will be invaluable in your choice, particularly when betting on Feelingbet.fr, for example.

Psychological state

For all sorts of reasons: the balance of a team's "dressing room" is of paramount importance. A good understanding obviously favours positive results, but the opposite is also true (read more on this subject: "sexus footballisticus"). At the 2010 FIFA World Cup? and Euro 2012, the French team's dressing room problems are a case in point.

In big clubs, squads are often overcrowded, and those who aren't playing can create problems and imbalances. Some players may also experience psychological fatigue due to the repetition of matches, and/or the succession of counter-performances.

A change of coach is also known as a psychological shock. The effect on results is not necessarily guaranteed, but it can boost a team over a short period.

The home advantage

Stats from all championships (and almost all sports): a team is always more difficult to manoeuvre on its home turf, for a number of reasons. Firstly, they play in front of their fans, who can put a lot of pressure on their opponents, which sometimes leads them to sublimate themselves. The absence of travel also favours recovery, especially when matches are back-to-back. Last but not least, key players have their bearings here, making it easier to take decisions at key moments in a match.

The notion of derby and Clasico

A derby is when two teams from the same city clash, or when two neighboring towns have a fierce rivalry. Milan-Inter in Italy, Real-Atletico in Spain, Barça-Espanyol, Man.United-Man.City or closer to home Lyon-St Étienne are always tricky to predict, as these matches are usually tense and evenly balanced. A draw is a regular occurrence. The notion of a "Classico" should also be taken into account, and concerns the big matches: Real-Barcelona in Spain, Juventus-Milan in Italy, OM-PSG in France. It's hard to pick out a favorite, and matches of this kind, which are often tight affairs, are decided by details and the "grinta" of great players.

The weather

The weather sometimes plays a role in the outcome of a match. Winter often means difficult pitches, sometimes with frost or snow. Home teams are often at an advantage. In particular, trips to Eastern Europe (Russia, Ukraine) are never easy to negotiate, especially in the European Cup at the end of February/beginning of March. In France, the first rounds of the Coupe de France at the beginning of January often produce surprises, levelling the playing field several divisions apart on difficult terrain.

Law of series and black beasts

Soccer likes to put forward these kinds of statistics, which don't necessarily have rational explanations but are part of the collective mind. Some teams don't do well against others, despite all logical explanations. How do you explain the fact that OM hadn't won at Bordeaux in Ligue 1 since 1977 until 2022? Or that Saint Étienne hadn't won at the Vélodrome since 1980 until 2020?

Fatigue and the accumulation of matches

To bet well online, you can't ignore the role played by the accumulation of matches in a team's results. The body tires with the repetition of effort, and while some teams are built to play several games, like the big European teams, other teams often rely on a small squad, or even a typical eleven. This can have repercussions on results at a given moment, often when the winter season brings a series of league and cup matches.

Injured and suspended players

Results depend, of course, on the team as a whole, but also (and often) on individual players. These are the decisive players, the indestructible, the irremovable regulars, the ones who leave a void in their team when they're not on the pitch. Mbappé at PSG, Messi during his Barcelona adventure, Payet at OM, Benzema at Real Madrid ... and many others. Watch out for injuries and suspensions to key men in certain teams.

Motivation and what's at stake in a match

A season isn't just made up of high-stakes matches. There are friendlies that are best avoided. Indeed, the start of the season is often full of surprises, and the end of the season can lead some teams to take their foot off the gas. Similarly, players don't approach a European Cup match in the same way as they would a league match. As for the games that precede or follow a Champions League match, they can bring a few surprises.

The reaction after the defeat

There's a lot of talk about reaction after a defeat, especially in the case of teams leading a championship. In most cases, the reaction happens. Bear this in mind when analyzing the progress of a top-flight team, whether or not it has just underperformed. The reverse is also true. Some teams get carried away after a good win and get carried away. Counter-performance is not far off. Feel it! Ligue 1 is often conducive to this kind of sequence.

The tipster's feeling and experience

While all these parameters need to be weighed up according to the match you're about to bet on, there's one that will often trump all the others: your feeling! In fact, your experience and your feeling are your best assets if you know how to balance things out (and avoid being too partisan for your team) to make a success of your soccer predictions. Feeling the outcome of a match is something that can't be explained, but that only you can see. The difficulty of sports betting lies in mastering these different elements. Welcome to Footballfeeling.com!